Beginning of the End: War in Kiev
THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE
The expert community saw it. Almost at full strength. Even yesterday's mourners have not argued about how much and how "merge Novorossia" and solely on the timing of entry Kiev mode to fight with yourself. It's a comforting fact. Not because the experts finally have seen the obvious, but due to the fact that the solution space Kiev authorities narrowed so that the options are calculated easily, even people who have little idea about chess and confusing to Wishlist geopolitics. So went to the expense of days up to a week.
Try to "play for Kiev" and see what resources to prolong the agony he stayed. The current situation was predetermined at the time when Poroshenko decided to fight for the early parliamentary elections. Many times I wrote that the old Parliament does not interfere with him, on the contrary, was even more manageable than it could be and become new. Also in May, when Peter A. was first announced his intention to dissolve the parliament, I argued that the output will receive a destabilization in the territories under their control, and the split between the party and the leader of the Maidan.
I will not once again explain why it was inevitable. During the election campaign, the inevitability of a reality. What we have in Kiev and its suburbs today? Maidan policy is quite a realistic assessment of the situation with the elections and realized two obvious things:
1. They have no more competitors in the southeast - Regions and the Communists defeated and driven into a semi-underground to take part in the elections will be able to only those who allow the new "democratic" government. That is the only real competition is scheduled to Independence field. 2. People who arranged an armed coup in February, have not gone away.
On the contrary, during the civil war they organized, armed and additionally intend to have a decisive impact on the election results in the same way that they have solved the problem Yanukovych. Just use weapons to solve internal problems, they will not stop. Especially because armed pressure - it is the only available way to participate in politics. The only true solution lay on the surface: if you want to get a good result in the election - have to rely on military force.
As a result of party lists and the majority districts were filled with neo-Nazis from the destroyer battalions, "victory" which was supposed to provide are not the will of the population, and the pressure of their armed comrades in arms on voters and election commissions.
But for this the appropriate "comrades" were supposed to be at the right time in the right place. As a result, a significant portion of the most ideologically personnel of different kinds of volunteer, territorial and other battalions, as well as some purchased on the occasion of the oligarchs of the regular army, were not at the front and in regional centers as the key to "vote counting" field. Equally naturally most of the militants entrenched in Kiev, because it makes the CEC last and decisive verdict. Of course, all these "participants in the political process" with guns are not going to go back to the front. Much more profitable and safer (in all respects) "control authority" in Kiev.
Thus, the gnawing power Kiev politicians themselves have flooded the capital of uncontrolled armed force. The situation is complicated by the fact that politicians fighting for steamy in front of economic and financial resources, objectively can not find a compromise and share power and ownership of all or at least the most influential. At all is simply not enough, and support groups (not only the battalions, but politicians and financiers to invest in the appropriate political power) demand compensation for the effort and costs incurred. If you are not satisfied with them, they will move to the side of a more successful leader.
That is the political space for an amicable compromise solution to the conflict caused by the struggle for power is not available. Well, if you can not agree, bayonets are the last argument in the dispute, and the involvement - a matter of time, not of principle. In addition, the managers and staff of the various battalions, feeding from the hands of various oligarchs and going to different departments do not like each other. Dislike intensified competition for the right to be the most correct Nazi, as well as front-line accounts (someone who betrayed and framed, who did not share the loot with a neighbor who had deserted and who shed blood, etc.).
The next layer of the population hangs outright fatigue from rapidly the deteriorating economic situation, senseless civil war (the victory in which no one believes) and perpetrated by the authorities of the feast during the plague in a dilapidated state. People are ready to break out from the first match. Do not break out of the New Russia, but against "traitors of the Maidan," but by the traitors that does not help. Temporarily, you can let off steam just throwing the victim at the mercy of the crowd. But, when the victim could be Regionals or communists, has already passed. The Nazis, of course, are ready to kill them, and further, as well as all the "Vatnikov", "Colorado" and other anti-fascists, but for the February-November period of Ukrainian history to answer to the people should have someone from the authorities.
And this "someone" is not so much: Poroshenko Yatsenyuk Turchynov, Avakov, a dozen politicians smaller - that's the whole list. They shot down in two main opposing groupings: "Popular Front" Yatsenyuk Block and Poroshenko. Armed and very angry at the world and at each other for a long time people can not sit idle. This is not the "Golden Eagle", waited months disciplined team of Yanukovych to disperse the Maidan. This gang condottieri. If they do not throw at the enemy, they are thrown at you. Thus, Kiev politicians have not much time.
Militants have to get the team "face" in the coming days, weeks maximum. You can certainly use the age-old trick and disposed of mercenaries on the front. But even here there are unsolvable problems. First, with a probability of 100%, received the order to go to the front, they will do as the Petrograd garrison in February 1917, which only unconfirmed rumors about the withdrawal of the front enough to overthrow the monarchy, keep much stronger than yatsenyukovsko-poroshenkovskaya team spiders in the bank.
Second, the army of Kiev after the August defeats able to conduct active combat operations no more than a couple of weeks (and most likely will fail before the front). After that the Kiev government is faced not only with the militants, who want to get to the wolves' traitors responsible for the defeat, "but with the coming militia, also seeking to present a bill for the destroyed city of civilians killed, tortured captive comrades. The rate of occurrence of militias will be determined its relatively small population.Consequently reach Kiev quickly it can not.
It will be necessary to pause, take control of the occupied territories, to hold engagement activities, pour in the local guerrillas fighting units and then move on. This creates another problem of Kiev. In the case of a lightning exit army Novorossia the near approaches to the capital could flee abroad to work "government in exile" and another 50 years to lecture and write a memoir about how "the Russian totalitarian Asian hordes strangled a young Ukrainian European democracy."
But since the start of the offensive between militia and capture of Kiev will be held at least a month or two, and maybe more, Nazi thugs of the destroyer battalions would be more than enough time to get shot down "traitors" to create a true "revolutionary government" maidan, while Authorities in Kiev is not only not be a reason to skedaddle to the West, but most likely not even enough for that crazy. They will continue to play off each other Nazis and wait, when the US will solve all their problems.
In fact what is considered Kiev authorities (even though it has long been vying for virtual conglomerate of political powers zombies is about ready to move into the category of real corpses ), can choose between the beginning of a shootout in Kiev, followed by the collapse of the front and the collapse of the front, followed by a shootout in Kiev.
In this case, it is clear that the regions do not have fallen under the control of militia and did not raise his anti-fascist uprising, not necessarily agree with the results of another armed coup in Kiev. Someone rebels refuse to subordinate someone and did declare their "independence" (good "territorial battalions" have virtually everyone, and military resource power after the coup drastically reduced). In general, the progression of the Makhnovshchina will be almost instant.
Of course, the first candidate for a "victim of the crowd" is Poroshenko. People are used to, that the president is responsible for everything. In addition, the peace he frustrated by their inability to enter into the world, and supporters of the war against him through the defeat as the Supreme Commander. Finally, he tycoon, having a business, including in Russia (almost ready traitor).
But this does not mean that Poroshenko will be the last victim. As once hated by almost all Yanukovych was the last barrier between the bad, but the order and rebellion, so today Poroshenko - the last barrier between the remnants of formal statehood and complete anarchy. Under the conditions of total anarchy nobody needs or Yatsenyuk, neither the government nor the Rada deputies, or political parties, or even journalists and political strategists Maidan.
There really every "Pan Ataman" his "gold reserves", whose value is determined by the number of bayonets in submission, as the number of bayonets - good fortune "Pan chieftain" in getting "gold reserve." And I'm afraid that very soon the Kiev "Europeans" who "not seen" in the country and the Nazis considered normal use of all the firepower of the Ukrainian army (including aircraft and ballistic missiles) against peaceful cities, to learn that Nazi gang rob and kill not only the "Colorado", but also artillery against the "Europeans" are used with no less pleasure than against "Vatnikov."
By the way, mezhnatsistsky and "internal European conflict" in Kiev - a good chance of survival for many of the remaining Russian supporters out there in the world. They very quickly cease to be the main goal, and the final collapse of the state machinery can not be employed against them centralized repression. Militants also be looking for their prey not on ideological and through ownership. Of course, those who will express their position with at least that portion of the openness with which this can be done with Poroshenko, the Nazis killed Makhno, without hesitation.
Also at risk are those people who know the face. But, for those who are not as well known and will not ask for it, to have an expensive car, good clothes and an apartment in a prestigious area will be more dangerous than anti-fascist views. One consolation - long "holiday Nazi democracy" will not last. EU "prozreet" even faster than our expert community. By the way, the September alarmists would have to publicly apologize - as a result of repeatedly moaning of the world "all is lost" is not in Moscow and not in the New Russia, and in Kiev.