The Third World War? Gas Market War
The popular writer Alex Anpilogov thinking about the upcoming battle for the world gas market, which is now unfolding before our eyes
World War III is already on our doorstep. Or maybe already entered our doors and considering the situation in our shared apartment with you. After all, our "communal apartment," our well-known and understood by all the world of planet Earth - ill. Ill mass social and economic ills that are always in the past and, unfortunately, in the near future seems to be resolved is the war. Since it is a war, as it turns out, is the concentration of policy.
Two years ago, analyzing the charts, I have shown that somewhere in the end of 2013 at the world-system has not had cause for further growth. And, based on these forecasts, decided that within one year the world will explode.
I then wrote: "But then - fork. And this is the active phase, rather than reactive. Here development options - the darkness. Therefore, and in a hurry in all directions. " But I did not think that the active phase of the Third World will start in my backyard. And they shall call her "Euromaidan."
The whole grotesque farce and madness of modern Ukrainian crisis should not blind us to the main theater of hostilities. War is for Russia. And because of its place in the hands, and the alliance of the Third World War. New war for a new world's resources.
Several times I have analyzed the Western strategy in the struggle for world domination. In terms of geography approach of Western countries for setting up a world model for them analyzed here , but in terms of control over the flow of energy, I tried as much as possible to identify and dismantle clandestine operation picture World Resources West here here .
This picture is simple, as the guy turnips and says the following: The West has successfully used so far in his confrontation with the Third World and the remnants of the second world (and it is - we are) the same successful strategy: divide, blocks and conquer .
In the classical formula of Roman domination today included another option: lock any pre-emptive action of the enemy. Why do I think that the classical Roman formula supplemented with today?
I, in general, have judged this issue in this long article . Rome itself was a huge block , being at the center of what was then the known world civilization:
© Photo: social networks
"Roman lake" of the Mediterranean, which was then the world's oceans since I century AD wholly owned by Rome and Roman roads organically complements the capabilities of Rome to manipulate trade flows. And so it went until the arrival of the Arabs and the Turks, who have begun to challenge the monopoly of the fragments Rome Mediterranean trade.
And here already the then West had to actively seek opportunities to return for world domination. And splashes itself to the outside world, colonizing the Americas, Africa and Australia.
Do not give up the West then only Russia and Asia. Because there have always been able to make the centaurs. Evil centaurs that could fend on its vast land of dastardly pirates of the Mediterranean and Mediterranean from rogue traders who have always been averse to change purse honest merchant in the pirate-slaveholder scimitar - just imagine them convenient opportunity.
And in the world today raskad opposition has not changed one iota. Because, like it or not, and geography - it is fate. And again, as always: the West against the East. Again, Russia - in the middle.
In the coming global confrontation - and that opposition to the US (and the West in general collective) and China weakened, but not captured by Russia in the role of the Joker card.
In full accord with the doctrine of the blockade Mackinder-Spykman-Mehema - the US and its satellites (which Japan and the EU) to block China from the world's resources in an attempt to retain control over the riches of Africa, Australia and the Americas.
"The Ring of the anaconda", designed to block China, has almost closed the southern and eastern sides of the Chinese sphere of influence - South Korea, Japan, bases on the islands of Okinawa, Guam, Diego Garcia, a Union United States Australia and eternal pain Chinese, Taiwan - China firmly locked as part of its East Asian cells.
China's attempts to break the blockade through Burma and Pakistan - is nothing more than a half-hearted solutions that do not offer any strategic advantage Dragon solving purely operational tasks.
And here it turns out that in the framework of breaking the siege way to solve China's problems on a global confrontation with the United States and the Western world is just to the north. In Russian.
In the eastern Eurasia now, after there over the past 70 years, having as many as four nuclear powers (Russia, China, India and Pakistan) - there is a "balance of power". Let India and Pakistan, India and China are not much like each other, but the option of open war between them is now much more fabulous than in the 1950s, when this balance of force was not.
I have no illusions about and open war between the US and Russia: at present time such a "hot" war between the two countries is not possible, as soon as will result in a mutual exchange of nuclear strikes. And the United States will not be at war with Russia. Their goal - to China. And his claim to world leadership.
World War III will once again be a war for resources. The First World War is rightly called a war of coal and steam, the Second World War can be called a war for oil. Third World (cold) is largely determined so long and not "taking off" the atom, and the Third World (hot), seems to be to go for gas. And in the way of transportation.
Here is an abstract picture of what happens to the global gas market in the gap is only 20 years old:
New Asian Dragon, China - will be forced to import natural gas from almost anywhere. In the furnace of the Chinese economy, today critically dependent on rapidly depleting stocks of Chinese coal, will be thrown everything: Australian coalbed methane and LPG Qatar and Iran, and shale US exports.
What's interesting - looking at the first map, we can already see that in this case China will be hard times: almost all the natural gas supplied by sea, past the key points of that "Rings Anaconda", which invisibly controls the entire world trade in China.
And, Arise from the US tomorrow, any claims against Chinese policy (and especially - in the pressure points of the Chinese "string of pearls", to which the ill-fated and Hong Kong, which recently tried to ignite the "umbrella maidan") - Americans have a unique opportunity to close any gas supply to China.
And here is just playing for China, said the Russian Joker. To date, the Russian Joker can play directly in three directions. This pipeline "Altai" and "The Power of Siberia" and the LNG project "Yamal".
With the parameters of "Forces of Siberia" and "Altai" in comparison with the existing exports to Europe and the CIS countries can be found here.
Oftsialny gas contract for under construction "Forces of Siberia" is 38 billion. M3 per year, even though the pipeline has a higher throughput opportunity - 61 billion. M3 per year.
The parameters of the designed "Altai" has not yet officially announced, but its capacity is declared as "least doubling exports Russia to China." So, we can talk about another 38-40 billion. M3 per year. Moreover, in contrast to the "forces of Siberia", this gas will have to go to the fields in Western Siberia, who still harbored Ukraine, Belarus, Turkey and European countries.
And finally, the "Yamal LNG". This is - a unique project of the ice LNG terminal, which in its work so far will be based on the South Tambeyskoye gas field (with reserves of 907 billion. M3). LNG power plant "Yamal" declared at the level of 16.5 million. Tons of LNG per year, of which the share was initially assured supply in China accounted for 3 million. Tonnes of LNG per year.
To date, the Chinese company CNODC already owns a 20% stake "Yamal LNG" and fundamentally still has the right to "first night" in the allocation of additional volumes of LNG.
Yamal LNG will be delivered in two ways: either to the European port of Zeebrugge, or with transshipment in the Far East of Russia.
Handling Zeebrugge terminal or planned in the Bering Sea is necessary in order to relieve a lot of work Gas tankers of ice class, which in this case is much more intense busy navigating in difficult ice conditions of the Arctic Ocean.
Multiplying yamalskogo tons of LNG by conversion factor of 1.38, we find that China, in the next 3-5 years may receive in addition to the pipeline, even from 4 to 23 billion. M3 of natural gas through the northern and southern routes of LNG.
South (winter) route of delivery of LNG also, in general, is vulnerable to "Ring Anaconda", but for the northern route runs along the coast of Russia's Kamchatka, the Kuriles by Russian same - you can be a little calmer.
And do not tell me that the second type of ship Helicopter carrier "Mistral" is called "Vladivostok". And so I understand everything.
If you add up all three figures, the total volume of Russia's exports to China could be up to 100 billion. M3 of natural gas per year.
Why China as natural gas from Russia? Here's the answer:
This - the EIA forecasts for growth in natural gas consumption in China, honestly potyrenny me here here .
Over the next 5 years, natural gas consumption in China will grow by more than tripled - from 147 billion. M3 per year to nearly 500 billion. M3 per year.
This growth should provide additional marine LNG capacity of up to 90 billion. M3 (hello, "Ring Anaconda") and the intensification of its own gas production in mainland China.
With its own gas production in China in EIA, as in the case of the US, all hope for Chinese slate - are planning to further squeeze, along with continued development of conventional natural gas fields, nearly 178 bn. M3 of gas per year.
Stress - in perspective only 5 years.
What is given such an exponential growth in gas consumption?
On the one hand, China continues to rapid urbanization of the population, for which he still needs resources, but at the same time, on the other hand - in the perspective of 10 years (around 2025), China will face a peak production of coal, which is now already reached the level of about 4 billion. tons of coal per year. In addition, since 2008, China has been forced to import coal still increasing rate:
These 4 billion. Tons of coal (in a rough recalculation is somewhere 4,000 billion. M3 of natural gas per year) provide almost 70% of primary energy production in China:
At the peak of coal production, if China all goes as planned, the Chinese will be able to count on the annual production of 5.1-5.3 billion. Tons of coal. Which would correspond to the production of energy, equivalent to 5100 - 5300 Bln. M3 of natural gas per year.
Thus, only coal, over the next ten years, China should provide additional equivalent energy production corresponding to 1100 - 1 300 billion. M3 natural gas.
What happens if all of a sudden this plan will not be made at least 5% on any objective reasons? I recall that in itself increasing coal imports by China has said that "the Chinese coal locomotive" stalled - and can not provide those economic growth and urbanization of the population that are taken by China in its global race.
5% underproduction of coal a year - is cumulative for ten years - 55-65 billion. M3 of natural gas to replace these non-produced quantities.
Plus - "The Ring of the Anaconda", which can easily block the supply of 90-110 billion more. M3 of natural gas, which will sail to China via the United States under the control of the straits.
Plus - the increase in production from shale, which is also necessary to ensure that "in spite of" and "contrary", so even with the import of the technology and equipment of the same United States and other Western countries. And there is still nearly 178 bn. M3 of gas per year.
Plus - your own, home-grown Chinese coal rush in the area in 2025.
So - Russian Joker and his "extra" $ 100 billion. M3 of natural gas per year insanely important to Dragon, who already hard preparing for the next battle for world domination with bald eagles.
Insanely important because energy rate even for simple inertial path of development for China has almost twice as high.
And judging by the events in Ukraine - Bear this time again not give lie down quietly in his den ...
The Third World, gas. Has already begun.