Friday, January 2, 2015

Paris and Berlin have underestimated Putin

Paris and Berlin have underestimated Putin 

Analytics Yuri
January 2, 2015

In her New Year address to the nation, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in fact that without the participation of Moscow to build a security system in Europe is impossible.

Thus, it is hoped politicians, put an end to its policy to oust Russia from the European Affairs Germany's position during the crisis was for Moscow very unpleasant surprise. Russia expects that with the help of Berlin will be to normalize relations with Europe related to Russia's actions in Ukraine. Thought that Berlin will perform some mediator in the dialogue between Moscow and Brussels. However, the opposite happened - the head of Germany's Angela Merkel topped the anti-Russian camp.

Here's one thing you never knew about Hollywood nude scenes After this article you quit smoking for good. Guarantee Treat alcoholism is now possible at home According to the chancellor, she could not do otherwise, as Moscow's actions cast doubt on the "fundamentals of our European world order." In part, this is true - the European world order based on the idea that Moscow was obliged to concede Europeans its periphery. Vladimir Putin has destroyed the concept. However, Merkel resentment due to the fact that the Russian president has questioned the foundations of the German world order in which Russia has a clear role.

"The German-Russian strategic partnership of recent years has always been based on the presumption of Berlin that Russia will eventually fit in EU external relations on the Rights of the periphery (albeit less subordinate than the Eastern Partnership countries, yet the periphery). It was assumed that Russia will share the vision of Europe, in accordance with which it has only one center - the EU and within the EU - Berlin. Now these illusions completely collapsed, - says Expert Online deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies Higher School of Economics Dmitry Suslov . - In addition, Germany has always been committed to the integration of the CIS countries and the orbit of the European Union, was the engine of this process, and associates it with its own leadership in the EU. Russia is finally turned on this issue in Berlin the enemy. " Speaking against Russia, Angela Merkel, Putin not only revenge, but also tried through a leading role in EU-Russia conflict, change the role of Germany in Europe, transformed from a "purse" of the EU in its leader.

 "The era in which Germany was kept in the shade, avoiding political role and tried, remembering the past, be pleasant in all respects, ends. The very situation in Europe is pushing Berlin to the leading role - there is simply no other locomotives. France drowned in the domestic problems, UK sails away from the Old World in an unknown direction, "- says the chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy Fyodor Lukyanov . However, the idea of ​​Angela Merkel failed. The authorities were well aware that the conflict with Russia and sanctions against it would lead to serious losses for German business, and hoped that Vladimir Putin quickly surrender.

However, this did not happen, the Russian regime survived, and now Angela Merkel came under attack. Economic Community of Germany almost an ultimatum requires her to give up the sanctions and their own allies in the face of the Social Democrats argue that the policy of pressure generally proved ineffective. As a result bundeskantsler forced to soften rhetoric and talk about that without Russian security in Europe is to build and maintain impossible. As for the other EU leaders - France - it has moved to a rational policy towards Russia before Berlin. She quickly realized that attempts to raise its own influence at the expense of conflict with Moscow hopeless.

Francois Hollande decided to show all the strength and determination to France when Moscow refused to transfer the first Mistral-class ship - "Vladivostok". However, again, as in the case with the German authorities relied on French transience of conflict and rapid delivery of Putin. However, Russia did not give up and behaved in history with Mistral very carefully, without hysterics, in accordance with the contract. As a result, if France does not give the ships, she is faced with the prospect of serious losses. Primarily financial - penalty contract will be several billion dollars, plus the shipyard, which builds ships, go bankrupt. Paris also expect branding costs - refusal to supply the French Mistral will be worth residues reputation in the arms market.

That is why the French authorities began to change position in the Ukrainian crisis. However, they do so much more effective and bolder than the Germans. Hollande quickly decided to retrain from the enemy in the Russian mediator in negotiations between Moscow and the European Union. Thus he tries to restore the role of France in Europe and at the same time withstand the excessive growth of Angela Merkel. To date, the Russian-European crisis has put Europe in general and France and Germany in particular a difficult choice.

 All parties may be pragmatic, speak with one voice and go for direct talks with Moscow to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. To do this, Germany must demonstrate a rational approach and resist the temptation to lead the anti-Russian camp. In this case, the crisis in relations is resolved, Europe will not get overly dependent on the US and can even resume the construction of South Stream on the desired her route - through Bulgaria. But European leaders can continue "ideological foreign policy."

In particular, continue the conflict with Russia. Such an approach is fraught with a split within the EU, because of the dialogue with Moscow is not only Paris and the European Commissioner for Foreign Policy Federica Mogherini, but a number of Member States - Italy, Hungary, Austria and others. But the most unpleasant thing is that this split may take advantage of the camp led by Britain eurosceptics, which stands for decentralization of decision-making in the EU. David Cameron has long dreamed of turning the EU of integration group in the forum to discuss pressing issues, and the more the EU internal differences, the easier it is to do

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