Wednesday, January 28, 2015



Dmitry Zavorotny

The other day the chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Konstantin Kosachev said at TVC channel, expressed the opinion that it is not necessary to demand from Ukraine 3 billion. Dollars of debt.

Recall that Ukraine has 3 billion. $ Eurobond, which Moscow has acquired from Kiev by the Irish Stock Exchange at the end of 2013. Maturity Securities - December 2015. However, in this transaction was written condition that if Ukraine's public debt exceeds 60% of GDP, the Russian side has the right to demand early repayment of the securities.

Earlier, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the conditions for early repayment of the debt has already arrived.

This fact is confirmed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, according to which Ukraine's state debt rose to 70% of GDP in 2014, and this year, according to the bank's public debt will also grow. Western experts in 2015 predict a rise in government debt at the level of 80-90% of GDP. Moreover, on December 19, the rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the debt of Ukraine to the level of CCC - (close to default, with little chance of a refund). This means that the Ukrainian economy is unable to service its debt and is actually bankrupt. Therefore, it is advisable to demand the return of the debt today.

What motivated the need for early repayment of this debt? As is known, the Russian leadership has condemned the military conflict in the Donbas. Russian authorities believe that the Ukrainian army of committing war crimes against civilians in the region. And three billionth debt is one of the tools of the Kremlin's influence on the Kiev authorities to stop the fire.

However, this does not consider the representative of the Russian Federation Council, Konstantin Kosachev. January 24 broadcast transmission "right to know!", The politician expressed the view that a review of debt is not able to deprive Poroshenko funds for the war. According to Kosachev money for these purposes in Kiev will find: "The West in this case will give credit to score once and for all in the consciousness of every Ukrainian, including long loyal to Russia," Russia has betrayed you, and we saved you. " - The politician said.

Almost simultaneously with the performance Kosacheva authoritative British publication The Economist published an article in which he expressed concern over the fate of the Ukrainian economy. In particular, the edition commented on the recent statement by IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde on possible additional lending in Ukraine:

"The new plan for financial assistance will not be able to solve another serious debt problems in Ukraine: we are talking about Eurobonds in the amount of $ 3 billion maturing in December. Everyone knows that Ukraine has already crossed the threshold of 60% of GDP, although officially it was announced a few months. Soon, perhaps, it will be clear that it is in the hands of Russia, not the West, is the fate of the Ukrainian economy "- The economist believes .

The fate of Western loans, which says Kosachev, depends on Russia, and not from the US or the EU, and it is a fact. In the British edition did not explain the main nuance Ukrainian debt: the acquisition of Eurobonds was carried out through the Irish Stock Exchange in accordance with international commercial law.

Refusal to fulfill its international financial obligations is the default, or at least, the difficulty further debt restructuring. Obviously, the belligerent may not simultaneously serve its external debt and to fight. For this we need a strong economy, which Kiev has not. Therefore stop the genocide residents of Donbass can without firing a shot. In case of default of Ukraine in the IMF will be forced to admit that further lending countries is impossible without cutting the bloated military spending.

Also do not forget that the funds for the purchase of Ukrainian Eurobonds were borrowed from the National Welfare Fund of Russia. In the current crisis conditions, the money is not superfluous and wait until the end of the year, when the time for repayment of Eurobonds - is not advisable. Ukraine bankrupt today, and it is time to solve two major problems - it is too late to return the money to the homeland and to deprive Kiev to fund the murder of the residents of Donbass ...


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