February 22, 2015 11:27
Recommendations for a truce
The foreign ministers of "Norman Four" February 24 fly to Paris to develop recommendations for the implementation of the Minsk Agreement. The fact that these agreements are not fully met, it became clear in the first hours after the announcement of a truce on February 15. As predicted experts, the negotiation process on the Ukrainian crisis continues.
Political analyst Konstantin Kalachev in an interview with "urgent commentaries" said the meeting "Norman Quartet" in Paris makes sense. In his opinion, any negotiation process is better than none.
"If the choice is between negotiations and the absence of negotiations, then, of course, I will choose the negotiations. I believe that the meeting of foreign ministers - something useful and necessary.Work out the details of execution of agreements reached earlier in Minsk, of course, necessary in terms of gain, strengthening removal of heavy equipment. But there are contradictions that it is hardly possible to remove. For example, the topic of input peacekeepers. Obviously, it is not perceived by the DNI and LC for the reason that she perceived her Russian. But Russia does not perceive it, because the appearance of peacekeepers - this is the way prednistrovizatsii Donbass ", - said the analyst.
Kalachev believes that the violation of the Minsk agreements are inevitable, as both sides of the conflict can not fully control their armed forces.
"As the Minsk agreements, the parties initially understood that violations are inevitable on both sides. The question is whether these violations of the system, how widespread they are and how they threaten the peace process. By and large, neither one nor the other side is not fully in control of his armed forces. There are problems with the Ukrainian side with the battalions natsgvardeytsev. Not everything is so smooth and militia units DNR and LC with the presence of different people, adrenalinschiki. Thus, all the nerves, so there can be no assurance that the shootout will cease, "- said the expert.
In addition, the analyst sees no prospects entering the peacekeeping force in the territory of Donbas.
"On the topic of the peacekeepers, I think, the parties may stumble. But there is one caveat: if a desire for those to whom appeals Poroshenko perform police post or to act as peacekeepers, whether the EU or the UN? While not noticeably reluctant to EU armed units of the European Union to carry out police functions, and the UN, in my opinion, not very willing to send "blue helmets" in Ukraine. So while it's more like a PR. This means a certain understanding of the Ukrainian side, that it is necessary or gently disperse, or wait for the situation in which it will be possible to solve the problem by military means. Obviously, the DNI and recognize the subjectivity of the LC and enter into direct negotiations the Ukrainian side does not intend, and this is the main stumbling block in the conflict ", - said the expert.
Deputy director of the Center of Ukrainian and belorusistiki MSU. University, a member of the President's Council on International Relations Bogdan Bezpalko said in an interview with "Relevant comments" that in the near future we will see what he wants to achieve the Ukrainian side.
"So far, judging by the rhetoric, it is not going to continue any efforts to achieve a peaceful process.We see that now officials and senior elite Ukrainian state on preparations for full-scale war, require weapons, "- he said.
"If all the parties, including the United States, were interested in the cessation of hostilities, these questions do not have stood on the agenda" - believes Bezpalko.
He believes that there is a substantial likelihood that the hostilities resumed.
"But to say exactly when it will happen, to what extent, in what part of the front, due to any provocation or military provocations like the downed Boeing - impossible. All this is still a very large window of uncertainty, everything is modeled by those who may just seek to ensure that interrupt this truce, "- says Bezpalko.
Commenting on the point of the Minsk Agreement on the challenge of heavy weapons from the line of contact, he pointed to certain conventions. "The fact is that if Ukraine removal of heavy equipment for 50 or 70 kilometers is not difficult, and there is only needed close monitoring, for the militia is not clear where they take. Because that in itself is very small territorial entity, "- said Bezpalko.
"In addition, the OSCE officers complained that neither party is neither an inventory of military equipment or, respectively, the schedule for its withdrawal. Unable to display technique, if not a full inventory of equipment. Show, say, two multiple rocket launchers, and another ten will hide somewhere in the bushes on the same front line, "- he added.
Bezpalko noted that there are difficulties with the exchange of prisoners of war. They are, in his opinion, "due to the fact that the Ukrainian side, usually under the guise of trying to give prisoners the militia just random people trapped in the territory of Donbass, and those who never even took up arms."
"Sometimes it happens even women. In this situation, the exchange of "all for all" is more advantageous to Kiev, he gets really, its troops, soldiers, officers. And Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic tend to get just random people - residents of Donbass. That's why representatives of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic insisted on the exchange lists, stressed Bezpalko.
Despite the ceasefire, both sides of the conflict in eastern Ukraine say the continuation of attacks, with the Ukrainian security officials blame the militia of Donetsk and Luhansk, and they in turn blame the Ukrainian insurgents. According to the DNR, for last night Ukrainians 15 times violated the truce by firing the outskirts of Donetsk and the airport. Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, in turn, reports the application of an artillery attack on a cafe in Avdeyevka, killing three civilians.
The United States and the European Union are seriously discussing the introduction of new sanctions against Russia. This was stated by the head of American diplomacy, John Kerry. Secretary of State explained that additional measures will be taken by Western allies in response to the violation of the armistice in Ukraine. In turn, the British Foreign Minister Philip Hammond stressed that the ceasefire is violated systematically, although since its introduction it was not long.
In an interview with radio station "Echo of Moscow" a spokesman for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that the new sanctions will not help to resolve the situation in Ukraine. According to him, Russia is now focused on ensuring the implementation of the "Minsk Agreement."
The Russian Foreign Ministry on the eve said that ministers "Norman Quartet" "agreed to develop recommendations to the contact group" that will help the implementation of all the provisions of the Minsk Agreement, signed in Minsk on 12 February.
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius confirmed that the meeting will take place on February 24 in Paris.
As explained by the newspaper "Kommersant" a diplomatic source, the meeting will be worked out "guidance" to the Minsk Agreement. He expressed hope that after these instructions contact group will work at full capacity.
In this case, the key issue at the ministerial meeting will be on Wednesday sent an appeal to the UN in Ukraine and the EU on the introduction of peacekeepers into the country. The Russian side has already expressed the view that such a step at this stage is beyond the scope of Minsk arrangements.
Prepared by Catherine Danshina, Elena Mironova