Tuesday, March 17, 2015

The next blow BCH may be the last for the junta.

The next blow BCH may be the last for the junta.

First we recall the main conclusions of the winter campaign. Loss MAT / NG during the winter campaign is not so great as during the summer fighting (because of their lower intensity). However, their effects are much more sensitive. In the area Debaltseve was virtually destroyed five battalions technique and tactical groups APU , tank battalion, a large part of the 55th Artillery Brigade. Worst of all for the junta that these losses are irrecoverable. Added losses unsuccessful and poorly prepared attack on the Donetsk airport in January and counter fighting in the area "bahmutki."

Total up to 8000. Of these, up to 2 thousand killed. According to art.Trophies in Debaltseve more than 80 tanks, 100 armored combat vehicles, and 100 self-propelled guns and towed guns. Total was lost almost all the equipment BTG 5 + 1 TB (given the shortage): Up to 120 tanks (all irrecoverable), 200-300 armored fighting vehicles, 200 self-propelled guns and 100 towed guns. 30-50 MLRS. Plus, this is quite significant losses on other sites: 20-30 tanks, 100 armored combat vehicles, 100 guns (mostly counter-battery fight).

VSN significant loss in the first place in the PM.

Losses in the art has been significant during Debaltsevskoy operation. Also notable losses were in the "bahmutki." Summary I can appreciate them as drugs around 2-3 thousand. Man. 500-800 of them killed. Half - is Debaltseve. Tanks to 50 units. Of these, 20 irrecoverable. BBM to 50 units. ACS and tools to calculate complicated. But to 20-30 guns and MLRS units.

VSN technology stocks started in the fall, they allow you to quickly fill. Moreover new trophies captured near Debaltseve allow to May form part of the new, fully equipped with armored vehicles as well as other types of weapons.

It's time to draw some interim results of the mobilization measures are the first step in the preparation of armies for the summer campaign.

VSN. At the end of last year, many are willing to join the WPC, for whatever reasons, was refused. Vacancies were few, and the number of wishing it was redundant. The need to make up for the loss and the decision to doubling of field troops (not to be confused with the total number BCH) before the summer campaign has led to mobilization by LDNR.

The need is 10-15 thousand people. And take only volunteers. Daily influx at the end of February was up to 300 people a day. The reasons for such a large number wanting more. Firstly, the first winter of the war in the Donbas brought a lot of destruction and casualties. Secondly, there is practically no economy of Donbass (except for some segments) and to live and feed their families men are recorded in the ranks of the army (where at least pay).

However, now many of them have "dropped out". The main reason is that their expectations do not match reality.Summer guerrilla and Makhnovism in the past. Soldier VSN, it is primarily a soldier who obeys the discipline and obeying orders.

To these we should add a significant number of volunteers from other countries. It's not just Russia. Many of them from Belarus, Serbia, Germany (according to the German press in the ranks VSN now fighting to 200 German citizens, immigrants from the former Soviet Union), France and other countries. Constantly swell the ranks of the Liberation Army and the residents of other regions of Ukraine.

I'm not ready to say whether these parts are deployed from scratch (with the backbone of the "foreign" volunteers) or on the basis of the Republican Guard battalions DNR. Rather, the first than the second.

The main thing is that the staffing of new units is on schedule and according to the plans of study, the first of which will appear on the front by May. Thus, by the time the field forces (those that can be torn away from their homes and throw the offensive) VSN up to 30 thousand people, and by June 40 thousand.

Of the captured booty and with the help of "PX" is formed at least two (and possibly three) additional tank battalions, as well as increased staffing artillery troops.

Outcome. By the early years of the company will set up two more (in addition to the two) army corps (2-3 teams in each separate tank battalion + + corps artillery). Are also available parts, not summarized in buildings with a total of up to 10 BTG.

Junta. Mobilization, announced in late January, early March could put under the gun to 30,000 "recruits". According to sources, the junta 5600 are recorded as "volunteers."

It is understood that between volunteers and volunteers VSN junta there is a difference. If the first of them came to the draft board themselves without agendas, many "volunteers" Kiev fell into this category, we obtain the corresponding agenda. They filed an application to the recruitment office in the spring (when it was fashionable and little threatened the vendor), but were called just now. Battle fuse is not the same, but the statement left. And therefore they are all "volunteers".

According to the training camps of up to one third of the composition of these "recruits" now have a very low moral character. And they will have to replace the shot and the last annual service of hardened soldiers. Plans for the demobilization, the junta announced are 30 thousand people (although it should be more than 100 thousand).

Most likely, it would fall under the soldiers who could not continue their service for health and "dead souls" (deadweight loss of the junta, which she continues to hide it of the population).

The announced reform of the APU involves the creation of new brigades, regiments, battalions. Some of them have already been created, a part will be created in the near future. Strengthen it or not grouping Kiev troops in Donbass? Let's give the word Poroshenko opponent and at the same time the chief editor of "Censor" Yuri Butusov:

Reform of the Armed Forces, which was endorsed by the president, is just a sham from the General Staff and the blunder of the military leadership of Ukraine.

Results: The establishment of two new staffs operational commands, the new headquarters of Air Command, increasing the number of generals and generals posts from 121 to 151, the creation of new military units in abject understaffing of the army.

The increase in the total number of troops to 250 thousand people, while not necessary to increase the total number and the number of combat mechanized units - all this is a huge resource costs, totally unjustified war in which our army and the economy did not afford.

Continuing to give the old technique poorly trained and unprofessional, unmotivated people, we do not strengthen the army. And vice versa - increasing the number of non-combat losses aimless. Under the new state General Staff sharply reduced firepower and combat capabilities of the infantry battalions.

Reduced staff in the artillery batteries - from 6 to 4 guns, but the number of artillery brigades increases from 3 to 6. While the funds artrazvedki still insufficient even in established teams, and there is a fully staffed and equipped with connections, create new artbrigady. Create new infantry brigades, though not provided with equipment and motivated and trained personnel staffing parts.

As you can see, the field army junta are in poor condition. Lacks any drugs or armored vehicles or artillery ALREADY (transition 4 gun batteries is very significant). And the most important thing to take this technique has no place.

Deliveries of the new - very limited. Old - requires constant repairs and ... still fails. And then there's Debaltseve. To some extent, saves the situation is absolutely passive tactics command of the junta. Part of the field troops dug in the ground and purely infantry units, and therefore bring them up to standard technical equipment is not required. And given the fact that there is no one to hold the front, decided to hastily recruit new units and close the holes in their defense.

And the old brigade will fight ... shifts (two battalions on the front, and the third with no equipment at "rotation"). On the one hand, it somehow solves the problem. On the other hand, in case of a breakthrough BCH motorized maneuvering reserves will not be (although paper will be plenty).

Result. The field army junta to May can make up for losses in the winter campaign of drugs and even a little increase the number (up to 40 thousand in the first line). Technical equipment of the troops has been steadily declining and stop this process is impossible.Army expanded so much that on the offensive actions headquarters APU does not even think. Will this still formidable 9 months ago "war machine" to withstand another blow VSN show time (50 to 50. Or can or not. Joke).
Prospects for the campaign

To understand the logic of action of each of the parties must consider the limiting factors. These factors do not allow to turn theory into practice. For example - the APU on paper is 250 thousand people (plus the same amount of MIA / NG). And at the front with all the stretch - 50 thousand fighters. Of these, 30-35 million in the first line.

Limiting factors VSN. Definitely outlines active offensive operations in certain areas of the front. MAT will actually stand and wait for impact, trying to fend off a few mobile reserves. The main limiting factor, which does not allow BCH go to a decisive offensive to the strategic objectives - number. It is clearly not enough.

Especially because of the militia, which never became part of the regular units of WPC on "their familiar" places will not do. Moreover, with the departure of the regular army in the breakthrough and remained in the rear of the only real force, these parts will not mate, and headache management republics.

And therefore, until this problem is solved, about any offensive leaving parts VSN deep breakthroughs can not be considered. Partially this problem can solve part of the "north wind", which does not substitute for heavy losses, will be able to control not only the remnants of the Makhno movement, but also the passive sections of the front, allowing the creation of BCH concentrate forces on the main lines.

But even if the problem is resolved, the number of 40 thousand people is not enough for a big offensive and retain control over the key points that can begin guerrilla actions (just to monitor communications corny need people. It is desirable local). That is why the ideological preparation for the offensive should be given considerable attention (as long as work is very weak).

The creation of civil structures (administrations) to keep the occupied territories acceptable living conditions. This is footage that we need to create now. This work is not conducted.

Creation of an autonomous viable economy that can operate in isolation from the Ukrainian market. A very important point is the preparation for the offensive collapse of the economy of Ukraine. If / when it happens, the population will be much easier to accept the new regime that will give them hope for improvement. The introduction of the ruble into use LDNR think it is important and necessary step in this direction.

The remaining possibilities MAT / NG. For the junta troops, probably easier to list not limiting factors, and the remaining possibilities.

Kiev regime has reached a stage at which it can no longer fight not (even if you really want and he will be allowed). For those who organized the Ukrainian crisis (USA), can not in any way allow the ideology of Ukrainian Nazism was destroyed by the rebellious Ukrainian people, which will inevitably happen if the war is over. So, the war will be unleashed again. Despite the fact that the junta's no chance of winning it.

What can junta troops. The maximum possible - is to keep the resistance line, after another defeat, which is inevitable in the summer.

The task of a maximum of total summer campaign (September-October), which mode can put his army - to keep the line admingranits LDNR, turning war into the next winter campaign.

Problem at least not collapse under the blows of BCH and retain the south line of the Dnieper, in the north of the line of Poltava - Kharkov.

The rear has collapsed, the economy is moribund, morale of soldiers almost zero. Some of the results can only be achieved by creating the experience of Nazi Germany in the minds of the people of the occupied territories of the image of the enemy soldiers VSN. Only this can help keep the situation under some control.
General conclusions

Donbass. February.Victory!

Giving forecast thankless task, but he was waiting, and therefore it is needed.Based on the constraints and the real possibilities of the parties is likely summer campaign will break in two. To maintain a constant offensive so limited forces at VSN trite not have the resources.

In the beginning (before the end of April) will be the one-two punch with limited objectives (Mariupol, Happiness, Artemivs'k, Avdiyivka ... no matter where it is). The further course of the company will determine the success of these attacks.

After the first defeat, the Americans will replace the current regime in Kiev on a purely military dictatorship (or earlier). It was at this moment possible collapse of the front and the attempt to turn a tactical defeat of the troops of the junta in strategic offensive VSN.Strategic objectives may be, as a way to line the bottom of the Dnieper, and output in the north to admingranits.

If Kiev will keep the front part, the second part of the campaign will start in the second part of the summer and with operations with limited objectives. But talking about it early. There are too many unknown variables.

Author: Jura Sumy

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