Sunday, April 19, 2015

Boris Rozhina on: "The Proposal for Demilitarization Donetsk Airport.

Summaries of the militia of New Russia
today at 3:00 pm
19.04.15. 
Comment by military analyst Boris Rozhina. "The proposal for demilitarization Donetsk Airport. 

After heated discussions zavedemo was left empty on ideas about entering peacekeepers and a new referendum, catapulted another, just as empty and obviously impossible undertaking about the" demilitarization "of the Donetsk airport Gorlovki. 

At that just do not have to go to simulate life activity "Minsk Agreement" that produce steady putrid smell. First, the practical part. 

1. The application proposals for the "demilitarization" does not lead and can not lead to "Minsk Agreement." In addition Gorlovki, airport and Shirokino, battles are under the sand, Spartacus, near Bakhmutskaya route, etc. "Demilitarization" is essentially a euphemism that trying to cover up an attempt to repay medium-intensive fighting that vspyhunli Donbas April 12, at least for part of the front line and to pretend that stipulated in Minsk line of demarcation shows a kind of real "truce". 

2. The previous agreement on withdrawal of heavy weapons junta is also not carried out, moreover, instead of something take, the junta contrary to drag more tanks and artillery to the front line. And in fact continues to do in the accumulation of basic military factions. No symptoms of the real discharge of artillery is not observed. In the case of trying to "peremirivitsya" unilaterally is a risk that the junta blows, and take either the airport or the suburbs Gorlovki. It is clear that for military reasons it will not go. 

3. The practice of "Armistice" showed that the shelling and fighting can go simultaneously with the work of "control group" and even in the presence of OSCE observers. At this point in the Donbas otstutstvuet force that can dissolve the warring parties and to ensure an effective and most importantly, impartial monitoring of the situation. 

Therefore, even from a purely practical point of view it is obviously impossible undertaking. Discuss and make some noise about it certainly is possible, but the chances of that comes to practical divorce troops in large parts of the front - almost none. Now, about the political part. Almost simultaneously with an injection of topics about the "demilitarization" made ​​Zaharchenko: Zakharchenko stressed that the Minsk agreement makes sense only if Kiev recognizes the self-proclaimed "republic." 

In addition, according to the leader of militants DNI, the boundaries of the republic headed by him in the future should be significantly expanded to include much of the territory that is now under the control of the Ukrainian army. Meanwhile, the administration of President of Ukraine in response to a request from the BBC BBC to comment on the words Zakharchenko said: "Ukraine fully complies with the Minsk Agreement. Donbass - an integral part of Ukraine." 

Accordingly, as is clear from the stated positions of the parties, the points of contact in the political part of the missing bit more than full. Junta and the US does not recognize the DNI and will continue to pretend that the republic does not exist (that it does not), but it's just temporarily occupied part of Ukraine as "Armistice" and "demilitarization" are not declared. The parties are well aware that the Minsk Agreement will never be made, but for their own reasons continue to argue that these agreements are supposedly intended to implement and carry out further. 

In fact, it all boils down only to the fact that at the beginning of high-intensity combat operations declare the opposing party which violates the Minsk Agreement. No "peacekeepers" and "demilitarization" can not change anything here. US ordered war, any attempt to evade the war through negotiations, "truces" peacekeepers, demilitarization will be stopped by the hands of the junta. And as we see in the period after the end of the winter campaign of 2015, these attempts (mainly Russia and DNI) to fill these agreements some real content, break even in the most obvious things like removal of artillery and an exchange of prisoners. 

Lack of operating scenarios political settlement of the conflict by virtue of unavoidable antagonism between the United States and the Russian Federation and the US non-participation in the negotiation process in Ukraine, leading eventually to the measures which are essentially normal time tightening and pulling the adoption of the inevitable and obvious solution. 

I am sure that after the "demilitarization" come up with something else, equally useless and does not affect the basic mechanisms of the ongoing war. Actually, Zaharchenko all well aware, so clearly says that the current agreement is doomed to failure, as if it was not obvious immediately after the agreements were signed. 

Therefore, all these "ratsionalizitorskie proposal" by the junta or DNR can no longer change the simple fact - the next "Minsk Agreement" de facto died irremediable contradictions and resolve them will have the force of arms, regardless of VSN will take heavy equipment or not will create a demilitarized zone, or will not, will invite or not to invite inspectors of the OSCE, the main mechanism for rotating flywheel of the war, it has no effect. 

Stop it without the participation of the United States is not possible, and Washington is not interested in the war to stop. Therefore, as in the past I am sure that without direct talks between Moscow and Washington on the fate of Ukraine, diplomatic solutions to the conflict will not bring success. In this regard, those who are afraid that someone still huddled Donbass back to Ukraine can not worry, objective circumstances are such that the Donbass stuff back if they wanted to no longer work. Subjectively, this attempt can be undertaken, but objectively nothing happens. The train has left the station already.

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