Sunday, April 5, 2015

"Yemen, Two sides of the same decision" | by el_murid

"Yemen, Two sides of the same decision" 

by el_murid .

The coalition, led by Saudi Arabia with the advent of a new day resumed strikes on Yemen. Methodical strokes while mainly reflected on the counter civilian casualties - has killed nearly 600 people.

Clashes (but yet it clashes) occur on the border of Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Yesterday it was announced the death of two Saudi border guards. It is unlikely that Saudi Arabia is not aware of the fact that strategically it can not change the situation in Yemen such actions, but it is worth noting that the logic in them, no doubt, is present. Sometimes wars are not for military result - he even has no meaning. Only a political one. The question arises - what to Saudi Arabia itself can be considered an acceptable result? Here it is necessary to recall previous events.

In general, they began last summer when Huthis actually took Sanou and President Hadi, who in February was to hand over his powers, in fact, only have endorsed their decision.In particular, without any problems was dismissed Prime Minister of Yemen, and reform Hadi, he was trying to promote all two years of his presidency, quietly and without much pomp died. Reform concerns the federalization of Yemen, which is not satisfied with any of the groups in the country and tribal sheikhs. Whether Hadi hand power resource, it would have to insist and push - but from the beginning he was a purely technical president, for his and appointed. 

As a temporary and intermediate. Even resignation Hadi has not caused any particular issues - either inside Yemen or beyond. Hadi - downed pilot, and in general, all knew it then, and now they understand. Already therefore the problem of Saudi Arabia: Hadi return on its "rightful place" is somewhat utopian. He was not, and will not have any tools for maintaining power - he can hold on to it only on external resources. Interior does not have. 

Government forces (which in Yemen are traditionally the usual tribal militia) - is detachments sheikhs who are not satisfied with the dominance of the Houthis, but the support of Hadi is a very indirect relationship. However, the Saudis have decided on a military operation, knowing full well that a military solution it does not. It should be understood that the victory Huthis who entered into an alliance with former President Saleh, the Saudis are not satisfied in the first place because the union is supported by Iran and militarily Lebanese Hezbollah ally it that on behalf of " Shia crescent "is actually in charge of Yemen.Here, incidentally, lies the answer to why a coalition participates, and Israel (albeit unofficially). 

In fact, for the first time in its history, Israel side by side with the Arabs fighting in purely Arab war, and in Israeli society is quite unequivocal support for the coalition and implanted irreconcilable attitude to Huthis ("Wahhabis we are not brothers, but Shiites - is an absolute evil") begins to take shape outline of a political solution, which also can be considered beneficial to Saudi Arabia if Iran and its allies can not help Huthis, and completely hopeless in all respects Mansour Hadi return to Yemen, it will be a serious blow to the reputation of the ayatollahs who are not able to support 
Huthis . 

It should be noted that while the Saudis chose the most suitable for an attack on Iran: Iranians are now linked agreements on nuclear program and are forced to choose between the two strategic decisions - Support for Union Husi and Saleh or promotion agreements with the "six" (read: the US). The fact that the agreements signed, leads to the conclusion that they are not made ​​in favor of the promotion of Yemeni politics of Iran. Naturally, help Husi and Saleh Iran has and will have, but in fact, it turns into another Putin and his "cunning plan" when you have to maneuver with a completely uncertain prospects such vylavirovany.

However, in contrast to the policy of Russia in Donbass, Iran in Yemen have a clear understanding of what he wants to achieve - and it's not returning Hadi. Return Hadi will mean planting in Yemen absolutely puppet regime that will support the Saudis and their coalition and, in fact, a soft occupation of Yemen, at least in its western part. In the center of the country is still the same Al-Qaeda, which is dangerous for Saudi Arabia only in case of victory Husi and Saleh - then they put shade ACAP from the coast to the north, and this is where the problems begin already at the Saudis. While AQAP in the sands of the Rub al Khali nothing to do, it is there and will not go. 

That's Framework situation in Yemen and the tasks that solve Iran and Saudi Arabia. President (or rather, have zits president) Hadi - a key marker of the situation. On whether he will return to Yemen, the Saudis, the result depends on the political actions of the coalition. Loyalty Shafi South sheikhs who oppose Huthis-Zaidi will be purchased, and in such a situation for the coalition ground operation will become redundant option. So far, there is no place to return Hadi - the territory under the control of the government army is extremely small, and Huthis quite rapidly progressed. However, this progress has slowed considerably since the beginning of the bombing, and Saudi Arabia hopes that it will be able to turn it backward movement - at least until the natural borders of South and North Yemen. 

Then in South Yemen could be parachuted Hadi and back it massive relief deliveries infusions of money and diplomatic and international pressure on Huthis. Especially, it is desirable for the Saudis to push Huthis from the coast, the only relative operating supply line and assistance from Iran - it's still sea, although care is delivered and air - but there is a coalition of knowingly destroys airports and airfields in the North. Anyway, but another marker situation becomes Aden - if the coalition could help the government troops to defend Aden and expand their control - its success will be very noticeable. 

Insulation Huthis can seriously undermine their combat potential, since the intensity of the fighting with the expansion of the territory controlled by the government forces can significantly increase, and the supply will be the Achilles heel of Husi. For the US, the situation is reminiscent of a laboratory experiment where any result will arrange researcher - he writes in his meticulously tetradochku and begin to prepare a new hellish mix depending on the resulting output material. 

The interests of Russia are equal to zero - that is, they can be arbitrarily serious, but no it does not have opportunities, and therefore not of interest too. All that is capable of Russia - is to evacuate people, each time respectfully asking permission from the coalition (ie Saudi Arabia). Chinese version with the regrowth of a warship and landing of special forces to protect evacuees - it is for the Chinese. By the way, otherwise from Aden to evacuate Russians basically impossible - but television said the successful evacuation of Sana'a, but about the fact that in Aden spontaneously gathered several hundred Russian citizens who would never get to Sana'a - silence. Well, just silence - they are not there. How would.

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