Sunday, May 17, 2015

Why did the White House needed a temporary reconciliation with the Kremlin

The cunning plan of John Kerry

From: The cunning plan of John Kerry
May 17, 2015

The visit of Secretary of State John Kerry in Sochi has become almost a sensation, eclipsing earlier arrival in Moscow Angela Merkel. His private conversation with Sergey Lavrov and Putin immediately overgrown with rumors. Heat of the moment you might think that the Americans gave up and ready to compromise, similar to the one that was signed during the Cuban missile crisis, but we should not jump to conclusions.

The peculiarity of American diplomacy is as follows: it is ready to deliver only what is already prepared for the write-off for one reason or another. However, he deducted a point for a reason - first the State Department is party to which the object can be sold under the guise of elimination concessions, and then call the real victim preferences, favorable at the moment the United States.

Another feature of American foreign policy is that it rarely enters into a compromise even with the power of comparable power.Washington may agree to draw a similarity in the frankly lose-lose situation, as it was in Vietnam.

Where the Americans will strike the next blow?

Knowing all of the above, it is reasonable to assume that Kerry came to offer something useless than and so decided to sacrifice in exchange for real concessions from Moscow. For example, it could offer to freeze the conflict in the Donbass, and even partially lift sanctions. This kind of truce.

The problem is not that Kerry can take with them any substantial gifts from Moscow - there is a separate conversation. It is important to understand that the "ceasefire" is now the United States should be much more than Russia. And it is possible that the Anglo-Saxons managed cunning once again high prices to sell something that they have gone, and so, but free of charge.

Why did the White House needed a temporary reconciliation with the Kremlin, and how much it will last? In the second part of the question can be given an approximate answer - a year and a half.Here's why ...

In a recent interview with Igor Strelkov acknowledged that the Ukrainian army could become really serious power, but for this she needs at least a quiet year for the completion of the technique, personnel, economy on a war footing and debug their supply chains.

This year need American and European instructors to train a sufficient number of Ukrainian officers with the gun, so that they themselves began to train recruits, aimed at the mobilization. By the way, such an opinion expressed not only Fusiliers.

Also we need a year to the United States and Turkey in order to inflict the final defeat of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and to remove Russia from Tartus. Not the fact that all of the goals will be reached, but judging by the information coming from the region, work in this area has intensified considerably. However, the complete victory of Washington is highly desirable that Moscow has refused to support the Syrian president.

And finally for the year it is expected dodavit European and Asian allies to convince them to join the trans-Atlantic trade and investment partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, respectively. And this is a very difficult task.

After all of the above is reached, the White House will come back to the Ukrainian issue very seriously. And Ukraine itself by that time will be more fit pinned on her tasks.

The following key points: 8 November 2016 US presidential election will be held. Democrats urgently need to present a victory on the foreign policy front. As with Russia for the specified period they obviously can not cope, it was decided to focus on more achievable goals. Perhaps the elections and will be tailored and updated the Ukrainian army offensive in the Donbass, which is also the first stage may be issued for the victory.

Another important date: December 4, 2016 to be held elections to the State Duma. Their result depends on how a country luggage suitable to this point. Recent opinion polls have registered a small decline the rating of "United Russia" and the growth of the Communist Party.

As long as everything is within statistical error, but if the trend continues throughout the year, the current leader of the Duma elections may come to a pretty confused popular.

If you take the place of the Americans, we understand that the collapse of the party conditional rating "AAA", they want to make a victorious offensive against the Ukrainian Donbass eve of Russian elections. The period between the start of the offensive and the choice should be large enough to Kiev managed to win a clear military victory and the defeat of the Russian society to recognize and be prepared mentally to the cries of "Down!"

If you add and American elections, we all the time keep in mind that we get an approximate start date of the general offensive - the beginning-middle of October 2016.

The logic of the Democratic Obama administration is simple to primitivism. One shot, they're going to kill several birds with one stone: to win the Donbass win on domestic American elections and at the same time make a political crisis in the Russian elections.

Shah black king

However, if the Ukrainian army will lose, but still with the direct participation of Russia in one form or another, the effect may be exactly the reverse, and the "United Russia" will get on the winning mood of the highest results, which very few people would think to challenge. Winners are not judged.

And yes, we briefly mentioned another important deadline - predicted a critical depletion of foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation by the end of 2016. The economy is unpredictable, but, apparently, Washington has in mind this prediction when adjusting its plans.

So, in all the circumstances and key dates we see that the Americans seems logical decision to delay the escalation of the conflict in a strictly defined period of time.

What will our country one year of the world? In fact, a year - a sufficient period of time for which can happen a lot of important events, especially if they bring.

First. It is desirable to remove at least part of the sanctions, especially in the high-tech industry. Even a temporary relief in this area will be a breath of fresh air for the Russian industry in dire need of sophisticated electronic components, precision machine tools, and so on. D.

This need has existed even in the Soviet period, and became close to zero, we are dependent on imports. Removal of sanctions is also fraught with absolutely unexpected consequences, for example, Russia can still get the "Mistral", if the contract is broken before.

Second. Time for retooling. If the last three years to build a new Russian military equipment at a pace, as if there is a war, then, judging by the latest news, re-equipment of the army, air defense, the Strategic Missile Forces (Navy and Air Force with a little more complicated, and there are more dates) will go, as if the enemy is already Moscow.

This suggests that the threat of foreign intervention is seen by the government as the real. In three years alone BMD-4D is scheduled to take more than 250 units, not to mention the demands of the president in an extremely short time to bring to mind and to put the troops in the Victory Parade presented technique.

US - Russia: Ukraine change in the Middle East

Third. Crimea. Establishment of life on the peninsula, including in terms of autonomous existence, is also an important point. Inspire optimism and message of the beginning of the actual construction of the bridge, although a couple of years he will not have time to finish even with the Stakhanovite rates. But there is a chance to solve the problem of water and ferry.

Fourth. "Turkish Stream" and "Power of Siberia" have to take final shape in the form of signed contracts. Now, taking advantage of the Western sanctions, Beijing and Ankara are trying to dictate to Moscow only to them favorable conditions. Removing the sanctions deprive them of such a possibility and the relationship will become more equal. More chances to create alternatives "South Stream".

Fifth. The President appears at least part time to update the elite, replacing the current "effective managers" on people, more appropriate setting. Will it be done - is another question.

Sixth. The visit of the Russian president in Tokyo was to be held in autumn, but for obvious reasons, was moved. Furthermore, under US pressure, Japan was forced to freeze all talks with Russia and to introduce even symbolic, but sanctions.

If the European Union cancels its sanctions, it is likely they will cancel and Japan. This will allow the two leaders to meet and discuss economic cooperation and a peace treaty.

And so on. The list goes on many items. How many of them will become a reality is impossible to say, because the reality is not even a "truce" by Kerry. It is very likely that the balance would once again be shuffled and a new war in the east of Ukraine polyhnet not a year and a half, and in the coming months.

What could give Russia more time, more than the designated year and a half? Only a major geopolitical event like the escalation of tensions in the Middle and Far East, which will divert attention and resources "partners" of Ukraine and outshine her on the television space. This is not ruled out, although plans counting on is clearly not worth it.

Author: Igor Kabardino

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