FRONT Novorossia / RUSSIAN WORLD
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In August, is likely to become tougher Russian policy toward Ukraine. Answers to questions from a member of MGIMO, doctor of political science Mikhail Alexandrov. In early August, in Moscow, the presentation of the "Rescue Committee of Ukraine" - in fact, the Ukrainian government in exile, which is now being formed former Prime Minister of "independence" Mykola Azarov. And that, I believe, a signal that Moscow and Kiev begins to play the aggravation.
In my opinion, the Ukrainian government in exile - the answer to a position that "independence" has taken on the establishment of an international tribunal for downed Boeing 777 in Donbas. As stated by the Foreign Minister of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin, five countries - Australia, Belgium, Malaysia, the Netherlands and Ukraine - two months later, again will require the UN Security Council to establish an international tribunal because it is "the best option from a political and legal points of view."
For me, it is obvious that the idea of the tribunal directed primarily against President Vladimir Putin personally. As conceived by the West - and with the filing of Kiev - the head of the Russian state should be in this Tribunal the main accused. It is this neuemnost Kiev, in my opinion, forcing Moscow to reconsider previous positions. - What will this mean in practice? - I do not exclude that in August may cause serious aggravation of the Donbas.
In my opinion, Russia is not accidental hard forms in the Western Military District, the First Guards Tank Army, which will give the best armored forces border districts, including Kantemirovskaya and Taman Division. It is very symptomatic step. I recall at the time, Vladimir Putin discussed sending troops to Ukraine. At the meeting the President invited the former military - generals-retirees who have served in the Ukraine during the Soviet era.
They are well represented by the forces and resources needed to quickly establish military control over the "independence." Apparently, to assess the real state of our Armed Forces, the meeting came to the conclusion that the resources to retain military control over the Ukraine is not enough. And in the Western District urgently need to recreate drums "kulaks" a Guards tank armies, as it was in the Soviet Union. And now - "kulaks" hastily created.
Although in August, I do not expect Russian offensive in the Ukraine, the political pressure on Kiev, no doubt, will be significantly strengthened. - Will we see in August of opposition protests? - August in Russia - the traditional time for the riots and coups. I think the leadership of the country is really worth to monitor closely the actions of the "fifth column".
Overall, however, our opposition is heavily marginalized, and now hardly capable of serious performance. The erosion of international reserves of China may aggravate the crisis of the Russian economy? Where likely attempted in August, "palace coup."Under this event its organizers may arrange backstage in the country and a large-scale emergency. The risk of such a scenario, I think, is big enough ...